NVIDIA Reclaims 220 After Earnings: What Comes Next ?NVIDIA’s latest earnings once again came in well above market expectations. But what really drove the stock was not just the quarterly numbers already reported—it was the stronger signal management gave about future growth.
Earnings Reignite Growth Expectations
NVIDIA reported FY2027 second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year. Data Center revenue reached $89.0 billion, up 117%, while non-GAAP EPS came in at $2.22. The company also guided for approximately $108 billion in revenue next quarter, above the market’s prior expectation of roughly $105 billion.
The only slightly cautious point was margins. NVIDIA expects non-GAAP gross margin of around 74% next quarter, down from 75% this quarter, as supply constraints and rising memory costs may continue to create pressure.
This also explains the sharp post-earnings volatility. NVDA initially fell around 1% after the release, but quickly reversed during the earnings call. Management indicated that FY2028 revenue growth could still reach roughly 70%, far above the market’s previous expectation of around 45%, helping push the stock as much as 4% higher.
The most important takeaway from this earnings report, therefore, is that the market is once again raising expectations for the durability of NVIDIA’s growth into 2027.
The Technical Structure Is Shifting
NVDA closed at $209.66 the day before earnings, down 1.59% from $213.05. After the report, overnight trading pushed the stock back toward $220, suggesting that the previous $209–213 area could now turn into short-term support.
The first major level to watch is $220–225. If NVDA can hold above this zone during regular trading hours, the post-earnings gap could evolve from a short-term sentiment-driven move into a more meaningful breakout.
Above that, the next resistance zone sits around $225–231. This area is close to both previous technical resistance and the upper end of the pre-earnings options-implied move. A high-volume breakout above $231 could reopen the path toward the 52-week high near $236.50.
On the downside, $213 is the first key level to watch. It was an important pre-earnings price pivot and now serves as the first line of defense for the post-earnings gap.
Below that comes the $209–210 zone. A move back into this area would mean the market has essentially erased most of the positive post-earnings reaction.
The more important medium-term support sits around $200–205. A decisive break below this zone would suggest that the earnings-driven repricing has failed and that the short-term trend is turning weaker again.
Post-Earnings Trading Strategy
For traders already holding long positions, $213 can be used as the first dynamic risk-control level. As long as NVDA stays above it, the post-earnings bullish structure remains intact, with $225–231 becoming the next breakout zone to monitor.
For traders looking to enter after earnings, chasing the overnight gap may not offer the best risk-reward. Two setups look more attractive.
The first is a pullback toward $220 that quickly attracts buyers and holds. The second is a confirmed, high-volume breakout above the $225–231 resistance zone. The former favors a pullback-entry strategy, while the latter is better suited to momentum traders.
If NVDA pushes into $225–231 but quickly reverses and falls back below $220, traders should be alert to a classic post-earnings gap-and-fade pattern. A further break below $213 would justify reducing short-term exposure, while a move below $209 would signal that the earnings breakout has largely failed.
At this stage, the key question is no longer whether NVIDIA delivered strong earnings. The more important question is whether $220 can become a new price platform.
If the stock holds above $220, $231 and $236.50 become the next upside targets. If it falls back below $213, however, the market may be returning to the familiar pattern seen in previous quarters: strong earnings, but limited follow-through in the share price. DJI: 2.3% From Highs — But the Real Risk Is in YieldsThe Dow TVC:DJI sits just 2.3% below its all-time high of 54,744, set on August 5. The rebound from the recent pullback looks convincing — DJI recovered above the 53,400–53,450 support zone and closed strongly higher. But underneath the bounce, the setup is more fragile than the chart suggests.
📊 Why This Week Matters
This is a three-collision week for the Dow. Core PCE lands Thursday (Aug 26) — and it's stuck at 3.3% YoY, well above the Fed's 2% target. Twenty-four hours later, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday morning (Aug 28). And NVIDIA reports earnings Wednesday after close — a sentiment shock that spills into even the price-weighted Dow.
The technical structure says bullish. The fundamental backdrop says "not so fast."
📈 Technical Structure: The Bullish Case
On the daily chart, DJI remains constructive. Price holds above the rising medium-term moving-average cluster and the ascending trendline. Short-term moving averages are converging after the recent consolidation — a pattern that often precedes a directional breakout.
The pullback looks like a healthy reset, not a reversal. DJI is up +11.3% YTD and has defended the 53,330–53,430 zone on multiple tests.
Key Levels:
Support:
53,430–53,330: Immediate support and key horizontal pivot
53,050–52,950: Rising moving-average support
52,730–52,900: Major support — a break below invalidates the bullish structure
Resistance:
53,570–53,670: Near-term resistance from short-term MA cluster
54,000: Psychological resistance
54,400–54,800: Previous swing-high area; next upside target
My read: the technicals support a push toward 54,000 if 53,330 holds. A daily close above 53,670 would confirm the breakout from consolidation and open the door to a retest of the all-time high at 54,744.
⚠️ The Hidden Risk: Yields, Not the Chart
Here's what the chart doesn't show. DJI's price-weighted structure makes it more sensitive to yield-driven components — financials, industrials — than the Nasdaq. If Core PCE prints above 3.3% and Warsh uses his Jackson Hole debut to push back on market rate-cut pricing, the yield move could overwhelm the technical structure.
The risk isn't hypothetical. Treasury yields remain elevated, and Warsh's keynote is the marquee event of the symposium. A hawkish Warsh + hot PCE combination would test 53,330 harder than any technical pattern can defend.
NVIDIA earnings add another wrinkle: a strong report could lift Nasdaq but simultaneously push yields higher on growth optimism — a scenario that helps tech and hurts the Dow.
🎯 What to Watch
Bullish trigger: Daily close above 53,670 on softer-than-expected PCE → confirms breakout, targets 54,000 then 54,744 (ATH).
Bearish trigger: Warsh signals hawkish + PCE above 3.3% + daily close below 53,330 → invalidates the setup, targets 52,730 then 52,000.
Neutral zone: 53,330–53,670 — wait for the catalyst to resolve.
The bounce is real. But whether it survives depends on Warsh, not the chart.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. 
Long
Pelosi Bets on BE: Can AI Power Still Support the PremiumPelosi Bets on AI Power
Bloom Energy has returned to the spotlight after Nancy Pelosi’s latest family trading disclosure showed that her spouse purchased a total of 15,000 BE shares on July 24 and July 28, along with 200 call options with a $100 strike price expiring in June 2027.
Congressional trading activity itself is not an investment thesis, but the combination of a sizable equity position and long-dated deep-in-the-money calls has drawn fresh attention to BE’s core story: AI data centers are increasingly constrained by power availability.
Bloom’s solid oxide fuel-cell systems can be deployed directly near data centers, reducing reliance on lengthy grid expansion. Its agreement with Nebius, which includes plans to deploy 328MW of capacity this year, highlights this “time-to-power” advantage. As AI infrastructure expands faster than traditional power grids can respond, electricity is becoming a critical bottleneck in the AI investment cycle.
Explosive Growth, Expensive Valuation
Bloom’s recent results do support part of the bullish case. Q2 revenue reached $1.065 billion, up 165.5% year over year, while product revenue increased 215%. Non-GAAP gross margin rose to 34.3%.
The company also raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $3.9–4.2 billion and expects non-GAAP EPS of $2.55–2.85.
The problem is valuation. At around $204 per share, Bloom carries a market capitalization of nearly $60 billion, implying roughly 15x the midpoint of its 2026 revenue guidance and more than 70x forward earnings based on the midpoint of its EPS outlook.
Even with revenue nearly doubling, that remains an aggressive growth valuation. The key question has therefore shifted from whether AI power demand exists to whether Bloom can grow fast enough to justify what is already priced in.
$185 Becomes the Key Line
BE has fallen more than 40% from its June 25 peak of $351.28. On August 24, shares traded as low as roughly $186 before recovering to close at $204.02, suggesting that the $185–195 area is beginning to attract buyers.
The first resistance zone sits around $220–230, followed by a heavier supply area near $240–253. A sustained move above $220 with improving volume would suggest that the correction since July is entering a recovery phase, opening the door to another test of $240–250.
For more aggressive traders, stabilization near $190 could offer a small starter position, while $185 should be treated as an important invalidation level.
A decisive break below $185 would suggest that the recent sentiment boost is insufficient to reverse the downtrend, with $160–165 becoming the next area to watch.
Bloom’s AI power thesis remains compelling, but at the current valuation, the next leg higher will depend increasingly on execution. Orders, revenue growth and profitability now need to keep catching up with the story. XAUUSD: Treasury Buybacks, Not ETFs, Drive Gold's Rally📊 The Setup
Gold hit a three-month high at $4,677 on Monday, up 1.6% on the day and more than 5% on the week. The headline everyone's running with: gold-backed ETFs pulled in $6.4 billion last week — 46.7 tonnes, the biggest weekly inflow in 10 months. But that's the symptom, not the cause.
🌍 Why Now
On August 19, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent quietly announced the Treasury would more than double its bond buyback operations — from $2B to at least $4B per operation — targeting the 10-to-30-year maturity segment where a buyers' strike had pushed the 30-year yield to its highest since 2007. That's the structural engine behind softer long-end yields and a weaker dollar. Gold broke above its 200-day MA last week, confirming the technical shift. This week brings two catalysts that could accelerate or break the move: Core PCE on Wednesday and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's debut Jackson Hole keynote on Friday.
📈 Core Thesis
My read: the Treasury's doubled buyback program is effectively stealth QE. By absorbing supply in the long end after a failed auction, it suppresses yields and pressures the dollar — both direct tailwinds for gold. The $6.4B ETF inflow confirms institutional positioning, but institutions are reacting to the same structural driver, not creating it.
The deeper pattern: when a government needs its own central bank's posture to help manage borrowing costs, that's the structural backdrop that makes gold — a store of value outside the currency system — worth holding, not just trading around. RSM's chief economist argued the buybacks undermine the Fed's inflation control; JPMorgan warned the intervention "belies underlying structural challenges." The Treasury-Fed tension is now explicit.
Technically, gold has cleared the 200-day MA and is testing the $4,680–$4,700 zone — the May 14 highs. A sustained break opens the path toward $4,775, where the 2026 downtrend's lower-highs line also converges. ETF flows are on track for a seventh consecutive week of net inflows (World Gold Council), and central bank buying recovered sharply in Q2.
⚠️ Risk View
Here's what could go wrong. If Wednesday's Core PCE accelerates beyond the expected 0.2% MoM, or if Warsh delivers a hawkish surprise — renewed emphasis on the 2% inflation commitment, validation of the three dissenting FOMC hawks — this flow-driven rally can reverse quickly. Systematic strategies tend to cut exposure at specific price levels when rate expectations shift, meaning volatility could spike even if the bigger inflation story barely changes. First support sits at $4,600, then the 200-day MA and breakout zone.
🎯 Key Levels
Resistance: $4,680–$4,700 (May 14 highs) → breakout target $4,775
Support: $4,600, then 200-day MA / breakout zone
Bias: Bullish while price holds above $4,600 and the 200-day MA
Trigger: Dovish Warsh + soft PCE → $4,700 breaks
Invalidation: Hot PCE or hawkish Warsh → pullback to 200-day MA
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. 
Long
MSTR Surges 20% in 2 Days: Is the Bitcoin High-Beta Trade Back?Why Did MSTR Suddenly Surge?
Bitcoin remains the primary driver.
After the U.S. Treasury increased long-duration Treasury buybacks, pressure in the long end of the bond market eased somewhat, which investors interpreted as a marginal improvement in liquidity conditions. Meanwhile, the Trump administration continued to push for more crypto-friendly regulation, while the SEC recently proposed a more flexible framework for token financing. These factors helped Bitcoin regain the $70,000 level and lifted crypto-related stocks broadly.
For MSTR, Bitcoin matters far more than it does for most crypto equities. Strategy currently holds more than 840,000 BTC at an average purchase price of roughly $75,000. With Bitcoin recovering from around $60,000 to above $70,000, pressure from unrealized losses has been reduced sharply.
If Bitcoin moves decisively above Strategy’s average cost basis, concerns over the company’s balance sheet and financing capacity could ease further. MSTR’s strong outperformance over the past two sessions already suggests that investors are assigning the stock a higher Bitcoin beta again.
mNAV Is the Real Key
MSTR can outperform Bitcoin because the stock is driven by two layers of leverage: the value of its BTC holdings and the premium investors are willing to pay over that underlying asset value.
During Bitcoin selloffs, both factors can move against the stock. Strategy’s BTC holdings lose value while its mNAV premium contracts, which explains why MSTR often falls much faster than Bitcoin.
Now that process is starting to work in reverse.
As BTC has rebounded above $70,000, Strategy’s underlying asset value has recovered. If Bitcoin continues higher and investors expand MSTR’s mNAV premium again, the stock could once more deliver two-times or even greater sensitivity to BTC moves.
That is the main reason MSTR has risen much faster than Bitcoin over the past two sessions.
The Financing Flywheel Has Not Fully Returned
MSTR is still some distance from the strongest version of its previous financing flywheel.
Strategy has continued to raise capital through equity issuance, but it has not used the proceeds to buy Bitcoin at the same aggressive pace. Management currently appears more focused on cash reserves, preferred-stock dividends, and debt obligations.
Investors will therefore focus on one important metric: whether BTC per share can continue to rise despite ongoing dilution.
If a higher share price improves financing efficiency and allows Strategy to increase BTC per share, the old positive feedback loop could return: higher stock price, new capital raising, more Bitcoin purchases, a larger asset base, and potentially a higher valuation.
If issuance mainly increases dilution without improving BTC per share, it will be much harder for MSTR to regain the extreme mNAV premiums seen in previous bull-market phases.
Technical Setup: $110 Is the Key Pivot
After two consecutive large gains, MSTR has broken above its previous $90–$100 consolidation range and moved back above $110.
The first level to watch is $110, now an important short-term reference point. As long as MSTR holds above this area, the rebound structure remains intact. The next major upside zone is around $120–$125, which represents a more important hurdle for a broader trend reversal.
On the downside, $104–$105 is the first major support area, roughly corresponding to the August 19 breakout level. A quick move back below $100 would suggest that the current high-beta trade is losing momentum.
Still Buyable After a 20% Two-Day Rally?
MSTR’s short-term structure has improved significantly, but a gain of more than 20% in two sessions also makes chasing the stock riskier.
If Bitcoin continues holding above $70,000 and breaks through the $75,000 area, the probability of MSTR testing $120–$125 would rise materially. If BTC then resumes a broader move toward $80,000, MSTR could remain one of the highest-beta names in the crypto equity space.
The downside is equally clear. If Bitcoin falls back below the $68,000–$70,000 area, MSTR could see a much sharper pullback as falling BTC prices and mNAV compression hit the stock at the same time.
From here, the two most important signals are whether Bitcoin can break above Strategy’s average BTC purchase price, and whether MSTR’s mNAV can continue to expand. If both improve together, the current rally has a better chance of evolving from an oversold rebound into a new high-beta trend. USDJPY: Intervention Fades, Carry Trade Doesn't — Why 159 Holds USDJPY FX_IDC:USDJPY has reclaimed 159 in under two weeks after joint US-Japan intervention slammed the pair from 164 to 155. That's half the intervention rally erased in record time. The message from the market is clear: you can weaponize the yen, but you can't kill the carry trade.
On August 2, Japan and the US executed their first coordinated yen-buying operation since 1998, reportedly through the EUR/JPY cross, backed by both Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japan's MoF. The pair hit a 40-year high near 164, then crashed to 155. Two weeks later, it's back above 159. The speed of that recovery tells you everything about who's really in charge.
🌍 Why This Matters Now
The problem isn't speculation. It's structural.
The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.0% in June — the highest since 1995 — but held steady in July. Even with two board members pushing for faster hikes and markets pricing a September move, Japan's borrowing costs remain a fraction of US rates. The yield gap that fuels the carry trade hasn't closed.
Three forces keep USDJPY bid:
US Treasury yields stay elevated, keeping the dollar attractive
Japan's trade deficit widened sharply in July as record crude oil imports overwhelmed strong AI-chip exports — a structural yen drain
JGB 10Y yields hit 2.945% on Aug 18, a 30-year high, but rising US yields offset the narrowing
Intervention raised the cost of shorting the yen. It didn't remove the incentive. Until the BOJ closes the yield gap decisively — or US yields break lower — the carry trade has a floor under USDJPY.
📊 Technical Setup
On the daily chart, USDJPY is stabilizing around 158.80–159.00 after the intervention-driven flush. Price holds above the rising long-term trendline near 157.20–157.50 — the structural backbone of the broader bull trend.
But price sits below a cluster of short- and medium-term moving averages. Upside momentum needs confirmation.
🎯 Key Levels
Resistance:
159.15 — Immediate recovery zone; a daily close above strengthens the bull case
160.60–161.05 — Major MA resistance cluster
163.00–164.00 — Previous highs and intervention-sensitive zone
Support:
157.20–157.50 — Rising trendline; the line in the sand
156.00–156.50 — Secondary support
155.00 — Post-intervention low
⚠️ Risk View
The bullish thesis breaks if USDJPY loses the trendline at 157.20. A daily close below opens the path toward 156.00 and potentially 155.00 — the post-intervention low.
The bigger risk is political, not technical. Japanese authorities have signaled willingness to intervene again near 160, and with US backing, that ceiling is real. Traders should respect 160 as an increasingly sensitive level — chasing into that zone is asking for another coordinated slap.
There's also a genuine fundamental risk: if the BOJ delivers a September hike and signals faster normalization, the yield gap could narrow faster than expected. JGB yields at 30-year highs suggest the market is already pricing this in.
🎯 Bottom Line
USDJPY remains fundamentally supported as long as the US-Japan yield gap stays wide. Buy dips toward 157.20–157.50 with the trendline as your invalidation. Respect 160 as the intervention ceiling. The setup isn't about calling new highs — it's about recognizing that intervention changed the speed, not the direction.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. AMAT Rebounds 5.5%: Is the Correction Over?Capital Starts to Return
Applied Materials rose 5.5% to $535.31 on Monday, quickly recovering much of its post-earnings decline. The stock had previously fallen more than 25% from its June 30 high of $739.67, as stretched expectations across AI-related semiconductor equipment names underwent a meaningful reset.
Wall Street has also started reassessing the pullback. On August 17, Berenberg raised its AMAT price target from $575 to $675 while maintaining a Buy rating. FactSet’s current average target is around $658. Post-earnings analyst revisions have generally remained constructive, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bernstein all assigning price targets above $600.
AI Equipment Cycle Remains Strong
AMAT’s biggest fundamental support continues to come from the expansion of AI capital spending into semiconductor manufacturing. The company expects advanced packaging revenue to grow more than 70% in 2026, while DRAM now represents 26% of Semiconductor Systems revenue. Customer discussions around equipment demand are also beginning to extend as far as 2030.
The key debate is whether AMAT can outperform the broader semiconductor equipment cycle. LSEG data shows the stock trading at roughly 32x forward 12-month earnings, below Lam Research, KLA and ASML at around 33–37x. That discount reflects lingering concerns over relative growth and competitive positioning, while also leaving room for valuation expansion if earnings expectations continue to rise.
$500 Becomes the Key Battleground
Technically, AMAT briefly fell toward the $500 area after earnings before rebounding to around $535. The $500–510 zone has now become the most important near-term support area. On the upside, the first hurdle is around $540, followed by the August 13 high of $563.75.
If AMAT holds above $500 and breaks through $560–565, the current correction could transition into a broader recovery, with $600 becoming the next major target. A break below $500 would weaken the rebound structure and suggest that the market still needs more time to digest the valuation pressure created by the earlier AI-equipment rally.
For now, I view AMAT as a watch-list long after a major pullback: use $500 as the risk line, $560 as the confirmation level, and consider increasing exposure only after a confirmed breakout. AMAT Rebounds 5.5%: Is the Correction Over?Capital Starts to Return
Applied Materials rose 5.5% to $535.31 on Monday, quickly recovering much of its post-earnings decline. The stock had previously fallen more than 25% from its June 30 high of $739.67, as stretched expectations across AI-related semiconductor equipment names underwent a meaningful reset.
Wall Street has also started reassessing the pullback. On August 17, Berenberg raised its AMAT price target from $575 to $675 while maintaining a Buy rating. FactSet’s current average target is around $658. Post-earnings analyst revisions have generally remained constructive, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bernstein all assigning price targets above $600.
AI Equipment Cycle Remains Strong
AMAT’s biggest fundamental support continues to come from the expansion of AI capital spending into semiconductor manufacturing. The company expects advanced packaging revenue to grow more than 70% in 2026, while DRAM now represents 26% of Semiconductor Systems revenue. Customer discussions around equipment demand are also beginning to extend as far as 2030.
The key debate is whether AMAT can outperform the broader semiconductor equipment cycle. LSEG data shows the stock trading at roughly 32x forward 12-month earnings, below Lam Research, KLA and ASML at around 33–37x. That discount reflects lingering concerns over relative growth and competitive positioning, while also leaving room for valuation expansion if earnings expectations continue to rise.
$500 Becomes the Key Battleground
Technically, AMAT briefly fell toward the $500 area after earnings before rebounding to around $535. The $500–510 zone has now become the most important near-term support area. On the upside, the first hurdle is around $540, followed by the August 13 high of $563.75.
If AMAT holds above $500 and breaks through $560–565, the current correction could transition into a broader recovery, with $600 becoming the next major target. A break below $500 would weaken the rebound structure and suggest that the market still needs more time to digest the valuation pressure created by the earlier AI-equipment rally.
For now, I view AMAT as a watch-list long after a major pullback: use $500 as the risk line, $560 as the confirmation level, and consider increasing exposure only after a confirmed breakout. Gold Up 10% in August — Can Fed Minutes Unlock $4,450?📊 Gold TVC:GOLD just had its best week since January.
After plunging roughly 18% from its January record near $5,600, the metal has roared back to the $4,400 area — up about 10% this month alone. The selloff is over. The question now is whether the next leg higher can break through.
🌍 Two catalysts converge this week.
First, Fed minutes from the July 28-29 meeting drop on Wednesday, August 19. Markets have already slashed September rate-hike odds to roughly 40% after July nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 — a 100K+ miss versus expectations for a gain of 80,000. Second, Jackson Hole looms August 27-29, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote as chair. Both events could either fuel or stall gold's momentum.
Meanwhile, the Middle East remains a live risk premium. Israel struck Lebanon over the weekend, and Trump is preparing new sanctions on Iran. China's central bank added approximately 20 tonnes of gold in July — its 21st consecutive month of purchases. The structural bid underneath gold hasn't gone anywhere.
📈 On the daily chart, gold bottomed after its sharp correction from the January highs and has since reclaimed its short- and medium-term moving averages. The MA structure is now turning higher.
The key breakout came when gold pushed through the previous moving-average resistance cluster at $4,135-$4,158. That zone has flipped from resistance into support. More importantly, gold is holding above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,343 — the level that now acts as the primary bullish pivot.
This isn't a V-shaped chase. Gold has been consolidating near the highs after the breakout, which is constructive price action. The market is using time to absorb profit-taking while maintaining its elevated range.
Fibonacci support framework:
$4,343 (78.6%) — primary bullish pivot
$4,260 (61.8%) — secondary support
$4,202 (50%) — momentum warning zone
$4,145-$4,158 (38.2% + MA cluster) — medium-term confluence
As long as gold holds above $4,343, the daily structure favors continuation over reversal.
⚠️ The flip side: gold is approaching near-term resistance at $4,436-$4,450, marked by recent swing highs and a psychologically significant round number. If price repeatedly fails to clear $4,450 and drops back below $4,343, the setup weakens and a deeper retracement toward $4,260 becomes the more likely path.
The Fed minutes cut both ways. Dovish minutes reinforce the lower-rate narrative and support gold. But if the minutes reveal a more hawkish tone than the market currently prices, the dollar could bounce and pressure gold back toward support.
🎯 My read: the broader bias stays bullish as long as $4,343 holds. The setup favors buying pullbacks into support rather than chasing strength at resistance.
Bullish framework:
Primary support: $4,343-$4,330
Invalidation: sustained daily break below $4,202
First target: $4,436-$4,450
Breakout targets: $4,500, then $4,550-$4,600
A confirmed daily close above $4,450 — especially if fueled by dovish Fed minutes — would signal the next leg higher is underway. Until then, patience on pullbacks is the better trade. Long 
NBIS Surges 34%: Can It Break $300?Nebius surged 34% in a single session after its Q2 earnings, shifting the market’s focus from whether AI cloud demand is real to whether this level of growth can be sustained. The results clearly strengthened the fundamental story, but the sharp move was also amplified by short covering. The key question now is whether this marks the start of a new trend or simply a high-level consolidation after a one-off repricing.
1. Q2 Changed the Story
Q2 revenue reached $582.3 million, up 454% year over year, with AI Cloud contributing $574.9 million and ARR rising to $3 billion. Adjusted EBITDA jumped to $236.2 million, a major inflection from a $21 million loss a year earlier. More importantly, Nebius expects more than $9 billion in customer prepayments in 2026 and has secured over $40 billion in customer commitments.
This matters because customers are now paying in advance for future compute capacity. That not only validates demand but also reduces some of the pressure to fund expansion entirely through external financing.
The 34% rally, however, was not driven by fundamentals alone. Short interest was close to 30% of the float at the end of July, so the earnings surprise triggered aggressive covering. The move should therefore be viewed as a combination of fundamental repricing and a short squeeze.
2. What to Expect Next
Customer commitments are not the same as recognized revenue. Nebius spent roughly $5.7 billion on capital expenditures in Q2 and raised its year-end 2026 contracted power target to 5 GW, while planning to add more than 1 GW of capacity annually from 2027.
The next few quarters will test whether data centers come online on schedule, GPU and power supply remain available, customer commitments convert into revenue, and margins can hold up during aggressive expansion. Q2 reduced uncertainty around demand, but it also shifted the main risk toward execution and capital efficiency.
3. Technical Setup and Trading Strategy
NBIS closed at $259.20 after earnings, pushing the stock back into its June high zone. The $250–260 area is the first key support. If the stock can hold this zone on a pullback, it would suggest the market is accepting a higher valuation range. Around $275 is the next intermediate resistance, while $290–300 is the major overhead zone, with the 52-week high at $299.86.
From a trading perspective, holding $250–260 and breaking above $275 would keep the path toward $290–300 open. If the stock consolidates near current levels, waiting for a higher low may offer a better setup than chasing the initial surge. If NBIS falls back below $250 and continues to weaken, the risk of a post-earnings gap fill would increase, with the $220 area becoming the next level to watch. EURUSD: Soft CPI , Wait for Breakout — MA CompressionEURUSD: Soft CPI , Wait for Breakout — MA Compression
The July CPI report delivered exactly what EUR bulls wanted — headline inflation easing to 3.4%, core CPI down to 2.5%, and traders slashing September rate-hike odds to 42%. Yet EURUSD barely held its gains before reversing lower. When a bullish catalyst fails to produce a bullish reaction, that tells you something.
📊 The Setup
EURUSD FX_IDC:EURUSD is trading near 1.1522, trapped inside a tightening 42-pip range between 1.1503 and 1.1545 after failing to sustain its push toward 1.1563. On the 4-hour chart, the moving averages have converged to their tightest spread in weeks — a classic compression structure that typically precedes a volatility expansion.
The pair is sitting at a decision point. The compression won't last.
🌍 Why Now
The CPI data was supposed to be the catalyst. It wasn't. Headline inflation cooled to 3.4% (down from 3.5%), core eased to 2.5% (down from 2.6%), and energy prices dropped 1.5% in July — all in line with consensus. The market response was muted: Treasury yields fell, Fed-hike probability dropped to 42%, yet the Dollar Index held firm near the key 100 level, supported by persistent geopolitical risk and safe-haven flows.
The next round of catalysts — US PPI, Eurozone inflation prints, and EU industrial production — may finally force the range to break.
🎯 Key Levels & Scenarios
Bullish trigger: A sustained 4H close above 1.1545 reopens the path toward 1.1563 and the 1.1600 psychological zone.
Bearish trigger: A confirmed 4H close below 1.1503 invalidates the near-term bullish structure, targeting 1.1480 and 1.1450.
⚠️ Risk View
The compression setup is directionally neutral — it tells you a move is coming, not which way. A reclaim of 1.1545 without follow-through would suggest another false breakout. Conversely, a breakdown below 1.1503 on low volume may lack conviction. Watch for the close, not the wick.
EURUSD is coiled. CPI failed to break the range, but MA compression says the real move is still ahead. The trade is not to anticipate — it's to wait for the 4H close outside 1.1503–1.1545 and follow the direction.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. SK Hynix's $38B Bet: AI Memory Confidence or Capex Trap?Earnings Cycle
The biggest story for SK Hynix this week is that after reporting record Q2 results, the company approved roughly $38 billion in new capacity investment, while the stock remains in a recovery phase following a sharp pullback from recent highs. The market already recognizes the strength of HBM demand. The real question is whether this expansion will extend the earnings cycle—or plant the seeds for future oversupply.
Policy Support
The South Korean government this week announced a KRW 5 trillion semiconductor fund and another KRW 5 trillion in trade financing, targeting materials, components, equipment and fabless companies, while accelerating power and infrastructure construction for semiconductor clusters such as Yongin.
For SK Hynix, these measures directly reduce the supporting costs of capacity expansion and strengthen the domestic supply chain. Part of this policy tailwind is already priced in. What remains less fully priced is whether simultaneous expansion by the government and industry could eventually increase supply enough to pressure memory prices in 2028–2030.
HBM Execution
SK Hynix reported Q2 revenue of KRW 79.3 trillion and operating profit of KRW 60.5 trillion, both record highs. Revenue rose 257% year over year, while operating profit increased 557%.
HBM, AI-server DRAM and enterprise SSDs were the key profit drivers. HBM4 entered mass production and shipment in the second quarter, while the company has also signed long-term agreements with around 10 major customers.
Of the latest KRW 54.3 trillion investment plan, KRW 35.2 trillion will go toward the Yongin Y2 DRAM fab and KRW 19.1 trillion toward the Cheongju M17 NAND fab. Initial cleanroom operations are scheduled for 2029 and 2028, respectively.
Upstream, SK Hynix depends on semiconductor equipment, materials and advanced packaging. Downstream, it is closely tied to Nvidia and other AI-server customers. Samsung and Micron are accelerating their HBM push, but SK Hynix still holds an advantage in production timing, yields and customer relationships.
Key Levels
SKHY closed at $141.65 on August 11, up 4.7% on the day, but still below the heavy trading zone around $150–$156 seen in early August. The short-term structure remains a rebound following a sharp selloff.
Initial support sits around $133–$135, followed by the psychological $130 level. On the upside, the first resistance zone is $143–$145, followed by $150–$156.
A high-volume breakout above $145 could extend the rebound toward $150 and above. A renewed break below $133 would suggest that selling pressure is returning.
Two-Way Strategy
The primary approach is a two-way trading strategy.
For bulls, consider entries if SKHY stabilizes around $135–$138, or after a confirmed high-volume breakout above $145. For the first setup, a stop can be placed below $132, with an initial target at $145 and a second target at $150–$156.
For bears, watch for a failed rebound around $143–$145. If the stock reverses lower and breaks back below $138, short positions could target $133–$135 first, followed by $130 if support fails.
Given SKHY’s high volatility, swing-trade leverage should preferably remain below 5x. Leverage above 10x is better reserved for tightly managed intraday trades. The current setup is best suited to a 2–5 trading-day horizon. A sustained move above $156 would be needed before treating the rebound as a broader medium-term trend.
Main Risks
There are two major risks: a slowdown in AI capital spending that weakens HBM order and pricing expectations, and faster capacity expansion by Samsung and Micron that changes the supply-demand balance earlier than expected.
The key question is no longer whether HBM demand is strong, but how long today’s elevated profitability can last. From a trading perspective, $135 remains the key dividing line between bulls and bears.
RKLB Drops 7%: Is the Neutron Delay a Buying Opportunity? Rocket Lab (RKLB) delivered another quarter of rapid growth, but investors were not impressed. Shares fell more than 7% in after-hours trading after the company reported Q2 results, as concerns over the Neutron rocket timeline and near-term profitability overshadowed record revenue and a growing backlog.
The reaction highlights an important point: Rocket Lab is no longer being valued simply on what Electron or its Space Systems business can deliver today. A large part of the stock’s premium depends on what the company could become once Neutron enters service.
Growth Remains Strong
Fundamentally, the quarter was far from weak.
Q2 revenue reached a record $234 million, up 62% year over year, while backlog climbed 137% to $2.36 billion. Rocket Lab also guided for another record quarter, forecasting Q3 revenue of $250 million to $265 million.
The problem was beneath the headline growth.
Rocket Lab posted a loss of $0.08 per share, wider than analysts had expected, while management’s Q3 gross-margin outlook came in below market expectations. The company continues to spend heavily on Neutron, infrastructure and broader space-platform expansion.
In other words, demand is not the issue. The market is questioning how quickly that growth can translate into operating leverage.
Neutron Matters More
The biggest concern, however, was Neutron.
Rocket Lab previously targeted the medium-lift reusable rocket’s first launch for Q4 2026. The latest update now emphasizes delivering Neutron to the launch pad during Q4, while CEO Peter Beck acknowledged that the window for an actual year-end launch is narrowing. The exact timing will depend on qualification and other critical tests later this year.
That distinction matters.
Electron has already proven Rocket Lab can launch reliably, while Space Systems has developed into a substantial business. But Neutron is supposed to move the company into a much larger launch market and support its ambition to become an end-to-end space infrastructure platform.
This is also why RKLB is often treated as a smaller-scale alternative to SpaceX. Investors are not paying only for current revenue—they are paying for the possibility that Rocket Lab becomes a vertically integrated space company capable of building spacecraft, launching them and eventually operating larger space-based systems.
A delay of several months therefore has a larger valuation impact than it would for a mature industrial company.
Valuation Raises the Stakes
RKLB closed the regular session at $80.04, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $48.5 billion.
Against Q2 revenue of only $234 million, that valuation clearly assumes years of strong growth and successful execution.
This does not mean the stock is necessarily overvalued. It means the margin for error is narrow.
When investors price in Neutron, expanding government contracts, rising launch cadence and a future integrated space platform simultaneously, delays become more important. Rocket Lab can continue posting strong revenue growth while the stock still falls if the timeline behind that long-term story moves further into the future.
That appears to be exactly what happened after this report.
Technical Setup
The post-earnings selloff now puts RKLB at an important technical crossroads.
The first major support zone sits around $72–75. This area overlaps the recent breakout structure and the stock’s medium-term moving-average region. A successful defense would suggest that the market is treating the earnings reaction as a reset rather than a breakdown.
The first level bulls need to reclaim is $80–83. This was the main pre-earnings trading area and represents an important short-term pivot.
Above that, $86–87 is the next resistance zone. A clean breakout could reopen the path toward $90, followed by the psychologically important $100 level.
On the downside, a decisive break below $72 would damage the recent recovery structure. The next meaningful support would then move toward the $65–68 region, an area where RKLB traded repeatedly in late July.
Trading Strategy
For bullish traders, there is little reason to chase the first post-earnings move. The better setup would be a defense of $72–75, followed by a recovery above $80–83. That would suggest investors are absorbing the Neutron uncertainty without abandoning the broader growth thesis.
A breakout above $86–87 would strengthen the bullish case, with $90 and eventually $100 becoming the next technical targets.
A move between $72 and $83 would keep RKLB in a neutral post-earnings consolidation range.
If $72 fails on a daily closing basis, however, the risk/reward changes materially. In that scenario, traders should be prepared for a deeper correction toward $65–68 rather than automatically treating the decline as a buying opportunity.
Rocket Lab’s Q2 results did not break the growth story. Revenue, backlog and demand remain strong. But RKLB is priced for much more than today’s business.
For this stock, Neutron is not simply another product launch—the timing of Neutron is part of the valuation itself. Dow at 54,744 Record While Nasdaq Sinks — Is the AI Trade BreakiThe Dow TVC:DJI just printed 54,744 — an all-time high. The Nasdaq? Down 0.8% the same week. That divergence isn't random. It's a rotation, and it has a name: Middle East peace.
🌍 Why This Matters Now
On August 5, the Trump administration signaled a potential deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Bessent said an agreement with Iran could come soon. Oil dropped. Inflation expectations eased. And money flowed out of AI-heavy Nasdaq names and into Dow cyclicals — industrials, financials, energy-hedged blue chips.
The same week, SpaceX (SPCX) fell 14% in its first earnings report as a public company. AMD dropped 6.5% despite posting record revenue and beating estimates. The reason? SpaceX told investors it's building its entire AI infrastructure on Nvidia — not AMD. The market read that as: AI capex is real, but the beneficiaries are narrowing, and the spending pressure on everyone else is intensifying.
📊 Core Thesis: The Peace Trade Is Breaking the AI Consensus
My read: the Middle East peace trade isn't just a sentiment boost — it's actively rotating money out of tech. Here's the logic chain:
Lower geopolitical risk → lower oil → lower inflation pressure → less Fed urgency to hike → rotation from growth/tech (which benefit from high rates keeping competitors out) into cyclical/value (which benefit from easing cost pressures and demand recovery).
The Dow is the cleanest expression of that rotation. It's not that tech is broken — it's that the marginal dollar is choosing Dow cyclicals over AI names for the first time in months.
📈 Technical Setup — DJIA, Daily
Record high: 54,744.33 (Aug 5)
Current consolidation: ~53,900 area (as of Aug 10)
Pullback from peak: ~1.5%
Price remains above the medium- and long-term moving-average cluster
Moving averages still positively aligned — broader trend intact
Momentum has cooled post-rally, but no confirmed bearish reversal
🎯 Key Levels
Resistance:
54,744: All-time high (Aug 5). The number to beat.
A sustained daily close above 54,744 opens extension toward 55,500.
Support:
53,368: First major horizontal pivot
52,900–53,070: Short-term moving-average zone
52,430–52,800: Wider moving-average cluster — the trend-defining support
Trading Scenarios:
Bullish: Hold above 53,368, and this pullback is just a healthy breather. Break 54,744 with volume → continuation toward 55,500.
Bearish: Lose 53,368 and the retracement deepens toward 52,900. Below the MA cluster at 52,430, the rally narrative starts cracking.
⚠️ Risk View
The bull case depends on the Hormuz deal actually closing. If talks stall — as they have before — oil spikes back, inflation fears return, and the rotation reverses. The Dow's record high is pricing in peace that hasn't been signed yet.
Second risk: SpaceX's lockup expiry released up to 911.5 million shares on Aug 6. If that supply overhang drags tech sentiment further, the Nasdaq weakness could spill into broader risk-off and pull the Dow down with it.
📌 Conclusion
The trade to watch isn't "will the Dow break 54,744?" — it's "will the divergence persist?" If Hormuz closes and tech keeps bleeding, the Dow-vs-Nasdaq rotation is the defining trade of August. My framework: stay long Dow cyclicals above 53,368, watch 54,744 for confirmation, and treat a break below 52,900 as the signal that the peace trade is unwinding.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Long 
Sandisk Sells Off Despite a Earnings Beat: Can $1,200 Floor HoldSandisk delivered a clear earnings beat, but the stock remained highly volatile after the report. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue reached $8.965 billion, up 372% year over year, while non-GAAP EPS came in at $39.25 and gross margin reached 84.6%. Data center revenue rose 103% sequentially and remained the company’s strongest growth driver.
The problem was not the latest quarter. The market had already priced in higher NAND prices, surging AI storage demand and continued margin expansion. Although management guided for further EPS growth next quarter, the midpoint of its gross-margin outlook was slightly below the latest quarter, raising concerns that the pace of earnings growth may be approaching a near-term peak.
Wall Street currently expects FY2027 and FY2028 EPS of approximately $206.50 and $249.80, respectively, implying forward P/E ratios of roughly 6.5 and 5.4 at the current share price. However, about two-thirds of Sandisk’s sequential revenue growth came from higher pricing. Investors are therefore reluctant to value peak-cycle earnings in the same way they would value the profits of a conventional growth company.
Technical Outlook: A Former Momentum Leader Enters a High-Volatility Repair Phase
After retreating from its record high of $2,354, SNDK broke below $2,000, $1,700 and $1,500. The daily chart now shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that the previous uptrend has been broken. The stock briefly fell toward $1,000 in late July and then rebounded sharply, but it has yet to reclaim any of the major breakdown zones.
The current advance should therefore be viewed primarily as an **oversold recovery and short-covering rally**, rather than confirmation of a new bullish trend. The structure will not materially improve until the stock breaks above its previous rebound high and reclaims the former platform around $1,600.
Still, the post-earnings price action was not entirely bearish. SNDK briefly fell to around $1,198 before attracting strong buying interest. That level closely matches the previous low near $1,222, suggesting that the $1,200–$1,250 area contains genuine demand rather than merely representing a psychological round-number support.
As long as this zone holds, the stock may form a short-term double bottom and attempt another recovery. A decisive daily close below $1,200, however, would invalidate that setup and increase the probability of another move toward $1,050–$1,100.
The main obstacle is the heavy overhead supply created by the previous breakdown. SNDK fell rapidly from above $1,600, leaving a large concentration of trapped positions between roughly $1,550 and $1,700. Any rebound into this area is likely to face selling from investors seeking to exit near breakeven, as well as further reductions by trend-following funds.
For that reason, even a move above $1,450 would only strengthen the rebound case. A sustained, high-volume break above $1,600 would be required to shift the medium-term structure from bearish to neutral.
Key Levels
The immediate short-term pivot is the $1,200–$1,250 support zone. If it holds and the stock reclaims $1,300, the next recovery targets would be $1,350 and then $1,450–$1,465. A break above $1,465 would indicate that the post-earnings selling pressure is beginning to fade.
The $1,550–$1,610 area is the key medium-term trend-reversal zone. A sustained move above $1,600 would open the way toward $1,695–$1,750, followed by a potential extension toward $1,900–$2,050.
If SNDK closes decisively below $1,200, the previous low structure would be invalidated and the next support zone would shift to $1,050–$1,100. A break below $1,000 would suggest that the market is applying a deeper discount to Sandisk’s peak NAND-cycle earnings.
Trading Setups
Aggressive traders can monitor the buying response around $1,200–$1,250. If the stock stabilizes and reclaims $1,300, a small position could be considered for a rebound toward $1,350 and then $1,450–$1,465. A break below $1,190 would invalidate the setup.
More conservative traders should wait for a confirmed break above $1,465 before assessing whether SNDK can challenge $1,600. Reclaiming $1,465 would signal that short-term selling pressure is easing, but only a break above $1,600 would confirm a meaningful improvement in the medium-term trend.
Longer-term investors should not build an oversized position solely because the stock trades at five to six times forward earnings. A more reliable entry signal would be a high-volume recovery above $1,600. That would break the current bearish structure and create the conditions for a renewed trend-following move. DXY: Seven-Week Low Hits 99.65 — Is 99.40 the Last Support BeforDXY TVC:DXY has lost its rising trendline. Three macro forces are hitting the dollar at once — and 99.40 is the last technical floor before 98.66.
The index trades near 99.65, a seven-week low. But the price level is less important than the structure beneath it: the trendline that supported the entire rally from March is broken, and the moving-average ribbon has rolled over.
📊 Why This Matters Now
Three drivers are converging against the dollar this week:
US labour momentum is fading. July ADP payrolls came in at 44,000 — half of June's 95,000 and well below expectations. With JOLTS already soft, Friday's NFP is now the make-or-break print for the dollar.
The yen has official backing. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed the US and Japan jointly bought yen on August 1 — the first coordinated intervention since 1998. USD/JPY near 157.69 sits well below pre-intervention extremes. Given the yen's heavy weight in DXY, this directly pressures the index.
A Hormuz deal is near. US and Iranian officials have signalled that negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may be in the final stage. If confirmed, reduced geopolitical risk would further weaken defensive dollar demand.
The complication: July ISM Services PMI at 54.1 with elevated prices-paid keeps the Fed caught between cooling employment and sticky inflation.
📉 Core Thesis: Below the MA Ribbon, 98.66 Is the Next Target
On the daily chart, DXY sits below the short-term moving averages and beneath the broader MA ribbon. The rising trendline from the March lows — which acted as dynamic support through the rally toward 101.80 — is broken. That loss signals the bullish structure is no longer intact.
Price is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 99.402. This is the pivot.
Key levels to watch:
Critical support: 99.40
Next downside target: 98.66 (50% retracement)
Major reclaim zone: 100.45
Major swing high: 101.80
My read: DXY is trying to stabilise above 99.40, but the setup stays bearish while price holds beneath the MA ribbon and below 100.45. A daily close under 99.40 opens 98.66. If risk sentiment improves further and NFP disappoints, the correction could extend toward 97.93.
A bounce from 99.40 is possible ahead of NFP. But unless DXY reclaims 100.45, any rebound is corrective — not a trend reversal.
⚠️ Risk: What Breaks the Bear Case
The setup weakens if DXY reclaims 99.97–100.45.
A sustained daily close above 100.45 would signal the trendline break was a false move and bring the upper MA cluster back into focus. A stronger-than-expected NFP, sticky inflation, renewed Middle East tensions, or a collapse in Hormuz talks could all rapidly revive safe-haven USD demand.
🎯 Bottom Line: Watch 99.40 Into NFP
The DXY trend has shifted from bullish expansion to technical correction. Three forces — soft payrolls, coordinated yen intervention, and a potential Hormuz deal — are all pressing in the same direction.
The framework:
Holding 99.40 → short-term rebound toward 99.80–99.97
Reclaiming 100.45 → bearish momentum fades
Close below 99.40 → 98.66 becomes the primary target
Break below 98.66 → 97.93 enters play
My read: stay cautious on the dollar until 100.45 is reclaimed. 99.40 is the line separating a controlled pullback from a deeper correction — and NFP will decide which one it is.
This analysis represents a technical and macroeconomic framework, not financial advice. CFDs involve substantial risk. Always use appropriate position sizing and risk management. SpaceX Earnings and Lockup Expiration—Can $104 Floor Still Hold?SpaceX is about to release its first quarterly earnings report on August 4, and the trading restrictions on approximately 912 million shares held by early investors and employees will expire on August 6.
A lockup expiration does not necessarily mean all these shares will immediately be sold. But the potential sharp increase in supply, combined with the repricing triggered by earnings, could produce SPCX’s most volatile trading period since its IPO.
1. Fundamentals: Starlink Generates Cash, While AI and Starship Burn It
SpaceX is no longer simply a rocket company. It has evolved into an integrated technology group built around launch services, Starlink satellite communications, and artificial intelligence.
In the first quarter of 2026, SpaceX reported $4.7 billion in revenue and approximately $1.1 billion in adjusted EBITDA, but it still recorded an operating loss of $1.9 billion. The AI segment alone accounted for $7.7 billion in capital expenditure during the quarter.
The total revenue in 2025 was $18.7 billion. Startlink has generated $11.4 billion revenues and $4.4 billion operating profit, making it the company's largest source of cash flow. By contrast,the AI division posted $6.4 billion operating losses for 2025.
The key questions surrounding this earnings report are: whether Starlink subscriber growth can continue to offset declining ARPU, whether AI spending is beginning to spiral out of control, and whether progress on Starship can continue to support the company’s long-term growth narrative.
The market expects second-quarter revenue of $6.9 billion. As long as Starlink maintains strong growth, investors may continue to tolerate heavy spending on AI and Starship. However, slowing revenue growth combined with widening losses might expose SPCX to another round of valuation compression.
2. Technical: $104 Is Both Support and the Final Psychological Line of Defense
Upward looking, the first major resistance zone sits at $120–$123. SPCX must break above and hold this area before the current rebound can develop into a genuine short-term reversal.
The more important resistance zone lies between $128 and $135. The $135 level represents both the IPO price and a previously broken trading platform. Only a sustained recovery above $135 would begin to repair the broader downtrend that has been in place since the listing.
On the downside, the core support zone is $104–$110. This area includes the record low and the approximate cost basis of recent dip buyers. If earnings or lockup-related selling pushes the stock decisively below $104 on heavy volume, the first downside target is the psychological $100 level, followed by the $92–$95 zone. Because SPCX has only a limited trading history, the key technical question is not its moving averages, but whether these major price zones can attract genuine volume-backed demand.
3. Pre-Earnings Strategy: Neutral Bearish
Bullish traders should wait for SPCX to break above and hold $123 on strong volume before targeting $128 and $135. If the stock remains unable to clear the $120–$123 zone, the rebound is more likely to represent pre-earnings short covering than the start of a sustainable reversal.
Bearish traders should avoid chasing the stock lower inside the $104–$110 support area. A cleaner setup would emerge if SPCX fails near $120–$123 and turns lower, or if it breaks below $104 on heavy volume after earnings, opening the way toward $100 and potentially $92–$95.
4. Post-Earnings Strategy: Can Market Absorb the Selling
If earnings are strong, SPCX clears $123 and then holds above $135 after the lockup expiration, it would suggest that the market has successfully absorbed the additional supply. Traders could then look to buy a pullback toward $135, with targets at $150 and $162–$165.
If the stock rallies after earnings but repeatedly fails to hold above $120–$123, the positive results may not be strong enough to offset valuation concerns and lockup-related selling pressure. In that case, attention should return to the $104–$110 support zone.
The most convincing bottoming signal would be a high-volume break below $104 followed by a rapid recovery back above $105–$110. Such a move would suggest that concentrated selling has been absorbed and could offer a small-position rebound trade.
Conversely, if SPCX breaks below $104 on heavy volume and continues closing beneath it after the lockup expiration, the downtrend will remain intact. Traders should then wait for a new base to form around $92–$95, or for the stock to reclaim $104, before considering a new long position. Gold: Everyone Sees $4,600 — The Chart Says $3,800 FirstGold TVC:GOLD is stuck between two stories. Deutsche Bank just reaffirmed its year-end target of $4,600, with a fair-value model near $4,700. But the daily chart tells a different story: price sits below a declining moving-average ribbon, RSI is flat at 46.5, and the $4,050 support is quietly weakening.
The gap between a $4,600 bull case and a $3,800 technical projection isn't a contradiction — it's the trade.
📊 Why This Matters Now
Spot gold declined 0.3% to ~$4,030 on Monday, with August futures falling 0.4% to $4,090.50. Three forces are converging this week:
The Fed kept rates unchanged, but three officials dissented hawkishly. Markets now price ~68% odds of a 25 bp hike in September.
Brent crude is up 20%+ last month on renewed US–Iran hostilities. Higher oil = sticky inflation = higher-for-longer rates.
Friday's NFP is the next directional catalyst.
John Williams said he'd be prepared to raise rates if inflation doesn't ease. That's not a neutral Fed — that's a tightening bias standing in front of a non-yielding asset.
📉 Core Thesis: The Chart Favors $3,800
On the daily chart, gold trades below a declining MA ribbon — yellow and cyan averages overhead, confirming the short-term trend structure is bearish. Price is near $4,057 with no bullish momentum expansion.
Key levels:
Immediate resistance: $4,061–$4,067
Secondary resistance: $4,089–$4,106
Major resistance: $4,143 → $4,201 → $4,382
Near-term support: $4,050–$4,053
Lower support: ~$3,945
Downside projection: $3,700–$3,800
RSI at 46.5 — neutral, but with room to fall toward 30 before a technical bounce typically develops.
My read: a decisive daily close below $4,050 opens the path to $3,945, and if selling accelerates alongside a stronger dollar, the $3,700–$3,800 zone comes into play. Notably, that's the same lower bound flagged by Deutsche Bank's own backward ADF test. The bank's model acknowledges $3,700 as a legitimate scenario within the same framework that produces $4,600.
⚠️ Risk: What Would Invalidate This
For the bearish structure to fail, gold needs to reclaim and hold above $4,061–$4,106. A sustained breakout targets $4,143, then $4,201. A clean recovery above $4,200 invalidates the bearish setup and signals resumption of the longer-term uptrend.
Until that happens, the structure stays fragile.
🎯 Bottom Line: Watch $4,050 This Week
The key level is $4,050:
Holding above → consolidation range intact, watch $4,061–$4,106 for a reclaim.
Decisive close below → $3,945 first target, $3,700–$3,800 projection zone.
Reclaim of $4,106 → momentum shifts back toward $4,143 and $4,201.
The market is pricing a $4,600 destination. The chart is pricing a $3,800 path there. Watch $4,050 — especially after Friday's NFP.
This analysis represents a technical and macroeconomic framework, not financial advice. CFDs involve substantial risk. Use appropriate position sizing and risk management. AWS Reaccelerates: Is Amazon Still a Buy After Its 9% Jump? What drives Amazon's post-earnings jump was not the sharp increase in reported EPS, but the combination of strong growth, expanding margins, and a rapidly growing order backlog at AWS. Second-quarter revenue reached $200.6 billion, up 20% year over year, while operating income rose 43% to $27.5 billion. AWS revenue increased 37% to $42.2 billion, marking its fastest growth rate in 18 quarters and becoming the primary catalyst behind Amazon’s nearly 9% post-earnings surge.
AWS Emerges as the Real Growth Engine
Investors had previously been concerned that Amazon was falling behind Microsoft and Google in the AI cloud race. The market was also increasingly cautious about the company’s massive capital spending and declining free cash flow. However, AWS growth significantly exceeded expectations this quarter, confirming that demand for AI computing capacity remains strong.
Amazon raised its full-year capital expenditure plan from $200 billion to $220 billion and indicated that a large portion of its future capacity has already been reserved by customers. As a result, the market has started to view these investments as demand-driven expansion backed by firm orders, rather than spending without a clear return.
The report was not entirely risk-free. Amazon’s net income received a significant boost from valuation gains related to its investment in Anthropic, meaning that reported EPS does not accurately represent the company’s normalized earnings power. Free cash flow over the past 12 months has also turned negative, which means AWS must maintain strong growth to justify Amazon’s current investment intensity and valuation.
Breakout Zone: $258–$261
Amazon closed at $235.50 before the earnings release, gaining 3.9% during the regular session, before jumping to around $258 in post-market trading.
This is not an ordinary price area. It corresponds closely to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous decline, while also overlapping with the July high and a former high-volume trading zone.
Therefore, $258–$261 represents the first major resistance zone for the current rally. Only a high-volume breakout above $261, followed by a successful retest that holds above $258, would confirm that the correction since May has ended. The next upside targets would then be $267–$270, followed by the historical high zone at $274–$279.
The first support zone is located at $252–$255. This area represents the short-term dividing line between strength and weakness following the earnings gap and would provide a more attractive level for a potential pullback entry.
The second support zone is located at $246–$249, corresponding to key medium-term moving averages and a previous consolidation range. A break below $246 would suggest that the earnings-driven momentum is beginning to weaken.
The final defensive level is around $235. If the stock falls back below its pre-earnings closing price, the post-earnings gap breakout would largely be considered a failure.
From a trading perspective, existing shareholders may continue holding their positions, while considering partial profit-taking if the stock is rejected from the $258–$261 resistance zone. Investors without a position should avoid chasing an aggressive opening rally. A more favorable approach would be to wait for a confirmed pullback and stabilization around $252–$255, or to follow the trend only after the stock decisively breaks above $261.
Overall, Amazon’s rally is supported by genuine fundamental improvement, but the stock has already entered a major technical resistance zone. Above $261, the trend shifts toward a confirmed reversal; $252–$255 is the key pullback zone, while a break below $246 would call for greater caution. NAS100: Three Hawkish Dissents — Short Into SeptemberThree Fed officials just voted to hike rates — and the bond market heard the warning shot. The FOMC held at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with Hammack (Cleveland), Kashkari (Minneapolis), and Logan (Dallas) all dissenting for an immediate 25 bps hike. First three-way hawkish dissent since 2016.
The 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.21%, highest since 2007. NAS100 ( NASDAQ:NDX ) dropped 2.1% to close at 27,239, extending its correction to 11% below the June record high.
This isn't a routine hold. It's a signal that a hawkish faction controlling 25% of the FOMC is ready to act — and needs only two more votes for a majority.
🌍 Why This Matters Now
The July FOMC looked calm on the surface. The internals were anything but. Three dissenters pushing the same direction isn't an outlier — it's an organized faction. Swap markets are now pricing ~60% odds of a September hike, with a full 25 bps increase already embedded in December contracts. Chair Warsh killed forward guidance, telling markets to "watch the ball, not the umpire." Every data print between now and September just became a live catalyst.
📉 Core Thesis: Short NAS100 Into September
My read: three converging pressures make the downside asymmetry unfavorable for NAS100 bulls.
1. Rate path repricing isn't finished. With 60% September hike odds and a hawkish bloc controlling 25% of votes, the market is still underpricing the tail risk. NAS100 — the most rate-sensitive major index — faces the brunt of valuation compression if the 30-year breaks above 5.25%, a level some institutional desks flag as a structural inflection point for equity positioning.
2. AI capex reality check. The Fed decision collided with Big Tech earnings. Meta dropped 4% after-hours after raising 2026 capex guidance to $130–$145B. Microsoft beat cloud estimates, but the broader question remains: does the spending translate to free cash flow? When rate hike risk and capex anxiety hit simultaneously, the AI rally that drove NAS100 to its June high looks fragile.
3. Inflation isn't fading. Warsh was unambiguous: "We will deliver price stability." No flexible target — only 2%. Middle East tensions, oil higher, new tariffs, AI-driven demand. The Fed's own statement noted the economy expanding at a "solid pace" despite "high uncertainty." Hawks have ammunition.
🎯 Trade Plan
Direction: Bearish. Sell on rallies ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
Entry: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies to supply zones or failed retracements (former support levels now resistance). The index has fallen 11% from its previous high—any rally that fails to recover key structural levels is considered a good shorting opportunity.
Target: Based on this move from the June high to the current low, with all moving averages trending downwards, indicating strong trend momentum, a 1:1 or 1:2 risk-reward ratio can be used.
Failure Condition: Daily closing price recovers the previous downtrend line—the risk of failure is higher if the August CPI data or the Jackson Hole symposium releases unexpectedly dovish signals.
Triggers to Watch: August CPI/PCE data, Jackson Hole symposium (August), oil price movements.
⚠️ Risk View
The Fed could hold in September. August data runs cool, hawkish bloc loses momentum. Warsh said data-dependent, not pre-committed.
Earnings could rescue sentiment. Apple reports tonight — a blowout could override rate anxiety short-term.
The 5.21% yield may be the ceiling, not the floor. If long-end yields stabilize, valuation pressure eases.
Geopolitical de-escalation. Any Middle East ceasefire removes an inflation catalyst.
This is a data-dependent setup. Not a "set and forget" short — it's a momentum-driven, event-risk trade. Re-evaluate at every major data release.
🎯 Conclusion: The Asymmetry Favors the Downside
The FOMC just told us, through three dissenting votes and a surging 30-year yield, that the next move is more likely up than down. For NAS100 — already in correction, already facing AI capex scrutiny, already the most rate-sensitive major index — the path of least resistance is lower.
Short rallies into September. Invalidation defined. Risk managed around the August data calendar.
Watch the ball. Not the umpire.
Short
SKHY Edges Key Support: Valuation Cheap, but Trend not ReversedSK Hynix fell 9.61% on July 29, closing at KRW 1,401,000 (SKHY: approximately $130.17) after reaching an intraday low of KRW 1,246,000 (approximately $115.77). The stock has now declined more than 50% from its late-June high, but the latest low tested a previous breakout area, suggesting that buyers are beginning to defend this zone.
The company’s fundamentals remain strong. Demand for HBM and high-performance memory used in AI servers has not shown a meaningful decline, while revenue and operating profit remain at historically high levels. However, the market had already priced in extremely optimistic growth expectations. Even record earnings can trigger valuation compression when the results fall short of those expectations.
Following the sharp correction, SK Hynix no longer appears expensive. Still, semiconductor cycle leaders often trade at their lowest P/E multiples near peak earnings. A low valuation alone is therefore not enough to confirm a market bottom.
Key Technical Levels
The most important support zone is KRW 1,246,000–1,249,000 ($115.77–$116.05). As long as this area holds, the stock may begin forming a base or stage an oversold rebound. A confirmed daily close below it would expose the next support at KRW 1,100,000–1,150,000 ($102.20–$106.85).
The first resistance zone is located at KRW 1,550,000–1,620,000 ($144.01–$150.52). The short-term bearish structure would begin to weaken only if price recovers this area.
Further resistance stands at KRW 1,780,000–1,860,000 ($165.38–$172.82). A more meaningful medium-term trend reversal would require a recovery above KRW 2,000,000–2,100,000 ($185.82–$195.12).
Trading Setups
Aggressive traders may watch the KRW 1,246,000–1,300,000 ($115.77–$120.79) area for a bullish engulfing candle, double bottom, or higher low before considering a small position. A confirmed break below KRW 1,246,000 ($115.77) would invalidate the bottom-fishing setup.
More conservative traders may prefer to wait for a recovery above KRW 1,620,000 ($150.52). If that level is reclaimed, the next target area would be KRW 1,780,000–1,860,000 ($165.38–$172.82).
Fundamentals remain strong and the valuation has compressed, but the technical trend has not yet reversed. Holding the key support could lead to a base-building phase; losing it would keep the broader downtrend intact. 
Long
EUR/USD Alert: FOMC Volatility & Bearish Breakdown Title: EUR/USD on the Edge: FOMC Suspense, Macro Crosscurrents & Bearish Technicals
Recently, the FX_IDC:EURUSD has been caught in a whirlwind of conflicting macroeconomic signals, from Middle East diplomacy to shifting central bank expectations. With the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting transforming from a "boring event" into a massive market catalyst, this is exactly when we, as CFD traders, need to be on high alert. By combining the latest geopolitical shifts with European economic data and critical Fed scenarios, let's break down the hidden risks in EUR/USD and how traders can capture the impending volatility.
Macro Previews: Geopolitics, ECB Stance & The FOMC Pivot
Why is EUR/USD experiencing such choppy price action? The market is actively digesting a complex mix of global factors. Hopes for a diplomatic resolution to Middle East conflicts (rumored to be pushed by China) sent oil prices lower yesterday, temporarily easing global inflation fears and denting the US Dollar. Meanwhile, Germany’s Ifo business climate index surprisingly rose to 86.6 in July, briefly lifting EUR/USD to a high of 1.1418.
Furthermore, while ECB’s Kazimir stated that at least one more rate hike is needed to curb inflation despite a stabilizing loan market, the US countered with strong core capital goods orders for June (up 0.9%) and massive corporate AI investments. This resilient US economic engine has kept the Dollar fundamentally supported, aggressively pushing EUR/USD back down to the 1.1368 lows.
The FOMC Warning: From "Boring" to "Maximum Suspense"
Just two weeks ago, markets thought this week's FOMC meeting would be a non-event. Now, thanks to sticky inflation data and robust US growth, CME FedWatch pricing shows a 34% - 36% chance of a 25 bps hike. The press conference will be the true "nuclear" catalyst. How the Fed guides the market regarding future rate paths—especially for September—will dictate the Dollar's strength.
Here are the three scenarios we are watching:
Hold & Neutral (High Probability): Fed signals inflation is cooling (aided by lower oil). USD weakens, pushing EUR/USD higher to test macro resistance.
Hold & Hawkish (Medium Probability): Fed warns of sticky inflation and hints heavily at a September hike. USD gains dual support from safe-haven flows and yield spreads, crushing EUR/USD lower.
Surprise 25bps Hike (Low Probability, High Impact): A massive pricing reset. USD explodes higher, and EUR/USD would face a breakdown collapse.
Deep Technical Analysis: Daily (1D) Bearish Breakdown & GMMA Crossover
Looking at the Daily chart for EUR/USD, the era of a sustained Euro rally is clearly fading. Price action has fundamentally shifted, and we are witnessing a significant structural bearish setup:
GMMA Trend Reversal Confirmation:
The Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator is flashing a major warning sign. The short-term moving average group (yellow) has aggressively crossed below the long-term moving average group (blue). Both groups are sloping downwards, indicating that the broader macro downtrend has strong momentum, and sellers are in firm control.
Key Support / Resistance Zones:
Descending Trendline & Macro Resistance (Red Line): A heavy dynamic resistance is formed by a long-term descending white trendline intersecting with a major horizontal structural level near 1.1413.
Immediate Support: The price is currently testing a critical floor near the 1.1370 level.
Downside Target: Below current levels, the next major psychological and structural support sits at 1.1300 - 1.1322.
Trading Strategy: Navigating the FOMC Volatility
With fundamental Dollar resilience and a clear technical bearish structure, traders should adopt a tactical approach. Volatility is where the profit lies.
Trend-Following Approach: Sell the Rallies (Shorting the Bounce)
Given the bearish GMMA alignment and the overarching descending trendline, the drawn trajectory on the chart suggests a high-probability setup. If EUR/USD attempts a relief bounce toward the 1.1380 - 1.1400 resistance zone (near the red line and trendline), this offers a prime "sell the rally" opportunity. Watch for exhaustion signals (like shooting stars or bearish engulfing candles) on lower timeframes to initiate short positions, targeting a drop toward the 1.1322 or 1.1300 support zone.
Breakdown Scenario (Momentum Short):
If the Fed delivers a Hawkish hold or a surprise hike, watch for a high-volume daily close below the 1.1368 support. A clean break below this floor will trigger further liquidation of EUR long positions, opening the door for a swift macro correction lower.
Yen's Do-or-Die Moment: A Bull Run or a BoJ Ambush?Hello everyone, this is the Bitget CFD Analysis Team.
Today, we are going to explore the recent price logic for USDJPY. Judging from the historic shift in Japan's macroeconomic policy and the current daily technical chart, the Yen is standing at a historical crossroads, presenting significant volatility and trading opportunities. Here is our detailed analysis:
Macro Fundamentals: Japan Bids Farewell to the "Low-Interest Era," Igniting Global Capital Reallocation
1. The "Cheap Money" Tap is Closing:
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) recently announced a policy rate hike to 1%, the highest level since 1995. For over two decades, Japan has been the global center for low-cost financing, fueling the famous "Yen Carry Trade." As the BOJ shifts its stance, the logic of cheap funding that supported global asset allocation is being redefined, and global markets may face the pains of "deleveraging."
2. Rate Hike Expectations Heat Up:
According to recent Bloomberg surveys, up to 90% of economists expect the BOJ to hike rates again before the end of this year, with some institutions revising the terminal rate of this hiking cycle up to 1.75%. Domestic wage growth has exceeded 5% for three consecutive years, and inflation remains steadily above target, indicating a structural change in Japan's economy. The BOJ is racing against time to normalize rates amidst internal policy debates and inflation risks.
3. The Crucial 161.95 Level & Intervention Risks:
With the market betting on the Federal Reserve (FED) maintaining a strong Dollar, USDJPY has been pushed towards the critical defense line of 161.95. If this level breaks, the Yen could plunge to its lowest record since December 1986. Previous record-breaking interventions by the Japanese government (totaling 11.73 trillion Yen) have been entirely erased. Traders are now closely watching whether to follow the strong USD trend or bet on a surprise intervention by Japanese authorities.
Technical Analysis: Strong Upward Momentum but Approaching the Danger Zone
Looking at the USDJPY daily (1D) chart, technicals show a strong bullish trend but warn of potential resistance:
Moving Average Support: The price is currently trading entirely above multiple EMAs and SMAs. The moving averages are showing a clear bullish fan alignment, acting as dynamic support for any short-term pullbacks.
Volume Profile Support (Choke Point): Combined with the Volume Profile on the left, we can see a massive accumulation of historical volume acting as support below (the blue box area in the chart). This solid base indicates that bears would need tremendous selling momentum to break the structure.
Ascending Trendline: The overall ascending trendline (white dashed line) remains intact, printing continuous higher lows. Technically, following the bullish trend remains the path of least resistance for now.
⚠️ Risk Warning & Caveat
Although the technical setup for USDJPY is bullish, we must pay strict attention to the massive variable: Direct FX Intervention by the BOJ and MOF (Ministry of Finance).
As the price approaches the extreme 161.95-162.00 threshold, the risk of sudden, unilateral intervention by the Japanese government grows exponentially. Such an event could trigger violent, rapid drops in USDJPY. Furthermore, if the US Federal Reserve signals earlier-than-expected rate cuts while the BOJ continues its normalization, the US-Japan yield spread will narrow sharply, reversing the long-standing bullish logic for USDJPY.
Conclusion:
Against the backdrop of a shifting BOJ monetary policy, a resilient US Dollar, and strong technical upward momentum, USDJPY remains in a powerful uptrend but is entering a high-risk zone. Traders should exercise extreme caution regarding sudden FX interventions and closely monitor the upcoming central bank rate decisions and official speeches. Strictly manage your leverage and stop-losses during this period of heightened "expectation gap" volatility. Post-Earnings Breakdown: Tesla, Intel & AlphabetTesla (TSLA) – Q2 Earnings Quick Take
Tesla delivered a mixed quarter. Revenue came in ahead of expectations thanks to record vehicle deliveries, but profitability disappointed as aggressive AI investments, lower ASPs, and weaker regulatory credit revenue weighed heavily on margins. Operating income fell sharply while free cash flow turned negative due to elevated spending on Cybercab, Optimus, and AI infrastructure.
The market is shifting its focus away from vehicle deliveries and toward execution. Investors now want proof that Tesla’s AI, robotaxi, and robotics investments can eventually justify today’s valuation. In the short term, margin recovery remains the biggest catalyst to watch.
⸻
Intel (INTC) – Q2 Earnings Quick Take
Intel surprised the market with one of its strongest quarters in years. Revenue and EPS comfortably beat expectations, driven by accelerating AI-related data center demand and a rapidly improving foundry business. Management also raised forward guidance, signaling confidence that the turnaround under CEO Lip-Bu Tan is gaining momentum.
This quarter suggests Intel is moving from a turnaround story to an execution story. Strong AI server demand, improving foundry traction, and better guidance could continue attracting institutional buyers if execution remains consistent.
⸻
Alphabet (GOOGL) – Q2 Earnings Quick Take
Alphabet once again delivered exceptional numbers, beating both revenue and earnings expectations. Google Cloud remained the standout performer with explosive growth, highlighting that enterprise AI demand is still accelerating. However, investors remain cautious as management continues to ramp up AI capital expenditure, raising questions about near-term returns on investment.
Fundamentally, Alphabet continues to validate the AI investment cycle. While rising capex may create short-term volatility, the company’s dominant Search business and rapidly expanding Cloud segment continue to strengthen its long-term competitive position. 
Long
